Main Card Media

UFC Fight Night 277 lands in Macau tomorrow morning — 7 AM ET for the main card, with prelims from 4 AM. Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo headlines from Galaxy Arena in a bantamweight main event that has one of the clearest structural reads on the card. The co-main brings Sergei Pavlovich back after his 69-second knockout loss to Tom Aspinall, this time against Glover Teixeira.

Weigh-ins are done. All fighters made weight — including Figueiredo, who missed by 2.5 lbs in his last fight but came in clean at 135.5 lbs this week. Six fights to break down. Here’s how the IRON model sees each one.

Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo — Bantamweight (Main Event)

This one reads clearly. Song Yadong is 28 years old, ranked #5 at bantamweight, and riding a six-fight win streak. He’s fighting in Macau — his home region — with a packed Galaxy Arena crowd behind him. Figueiredo is 38, a two-time flyweight champion who moved up to bantamweight and has since lost to ranked opponents at the new weight class.

The missing weight flag was the central concern heading into this fight — Figueiredo missed by 2.5 lbs last time out, raising questions about whether he can still make 135. That concern is off the table. He came in at 135.5. But the structural argument against him remains: prime-age contender against an aging veteran at a weight class that’s proven to be a step too far.

The market agrees strongly. IRON model: Song Yadong — HIGH confidence. Song’s trajectory at bantamweight — quality wins, clean activity, home crowd — makes this the card’s most defensible pick. We broke down this matchup in full earlier this week. The case for Figueiredo is championship pedigree — but that pedigree was built at 125 lbs.

Verdict: Song Yadong. The age gap, weight class history, and location advantage stack up in one direction. This is the pick with the most structural backing on the card.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Glover Teixeira — Co-Main Event

Pavlovich is ranked #3 heavyweight with one of the most developed finishing games in the UFC. His losses have come only to champions — a record that speaks to the level he’s operating at regardless of recent setbacks. He was stopped in 69 seconds by Tom Aspinall at UFC 295, which was a brutal result, but Aspinall is the undisputed heavyweight champion. That’s the company Pavlovich keeps in his loss column.

Teixeira is 46 years old. The IRON structural read on this fight is unambiguous: his best recent win came over a fighter on a seven-fight losing streak. That’s the depth of competition he’s been clearing at this stage of his career. The gap between that opposition and a top-3 heavyweight is significant.

IRON model: Sergei Pavlovich — HIGH confidence. Camp quality, ranking, opponent age and recent opposition level all point the same direction. The only real question is whether Pavlovich’s finishing instincts close this out early or Teixeira’s durability extends it.

Verdict: Pavlovich. Two HIGH confidence picks on the same card — both pointing at the same structural profile: younger, higher-ranked, better camp, more relevant recent opposition.

Zhang Mingyang vs. Dustin Menifield — Light Heavyweight

Zhang Mingyang is 27 years old, fighting in Macau. Menifield is 38. This is the third fight on the card where age differential and home advantage compound into a structural edge — and the market has moved to reflect it. Zhang opened as a moderate favorite and has continued drifting in his direction since Wednesday, with sharp money adding over three percentage points to his side.

IRON model: Zhang Mingyang — MODERATE confidence. The age decline flag on Menifield is real, the home crowd factor is real, and the market is reading this the same way. Not a HIGH pick, but a confident MODERATE with movement confirming the direction.

Verdict: Zhang Mingyang. The structural reasons have only strengthened since the pick was first made.

Kai Asakura vs. Kyler Smotherman — Bantamweight

Asakura brings RIZIN-level bantamweight pedigree into this fight — he’s been competing against elite Asian competition for years. Smotherman is making his UFC debut against someone significantly more experienced at the highest regional level. The market has priced Asakura as a heavy favorite, and the IRON model agrees with that framing.

IRON model: Kai Asakura — LEAN confidence. The pedigree gap is real. LEAN reflects appropriate uncertainty around any UFC debut situation, not skepticism about Asakura’s quality. Expect Asakura to handle this.

Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris — Welterweight

Muslim Salikhov withdrew from this fight and Carlston Harris stepped in on short notice. That matters for how you evaluate the pick. The original IRON case was built around Salikhov’s extreme age and KO vulnerability — Harris doesn’t carry those structural weaknesses. Matthews is still the pick, but confidence drops accordingly.

The market has moved aggressively: Matthews opened near-even against Salikhov and is now -425 against Harris. Sharp money identified Harris as a weak late replacement. IRON model: Jake Matthews — LEAN confidence. Short-notice opponent, experience advantage, market confirmation. Reduced from what it would have been against Salikhov.

Alex Perez vs. Su Mudaerji — Flyweight

Su Mudaerji is a Chinese fighter competing at home in Macau with a camp quality edge over Perez. The line has drifted toward Mudaerji through fight week, reflecting market consensus on the home advantage and preparation gap. IRON model: Su Mudaerji — LEAN confidence. Tightest call on the card — but the structural factors line up consistently.

Our Card Picks at a Glance

Two HIGH picks, one MODERATE, three LEANs. The two strongest structural calls on this card are also the most defensible: Song over an aging Figueiredo in front of a home crowd, and Pavlovich over a 46-year-old Teixeira whose recent wins don’t merit co-main event billing against a top-3 heavyweight. If you’re looking for the play of the card, it starts there. Enjoy the fights.